Kyle Samani Analyzes Solana’s Potential to Eclipse Ethereum

During his enlightening presentation at TOKEN2049 on September 19, Multicoin Capital’s co-founder Kyle Samani provided a compelling analysis of why Solana could eventually surpass Ethereum as a leading Layer 1 (L1) blockchain network.

Good morning, everyone! I’m Kyle Samani, co-founder and Managing Partner at Multicoin. Today, I’ll discuss why we believe Solana has the potential to overtake Ethereum. Some of you might already agree, others might find this idea radical or unlikely. My aim is to make you reconsider the underlying factors.

Today’s talk is structured into three parts. First, I’ll briefly revisit Ethereum’s history, essential for understanding its current state and challenges. Next, I’ll discuss why Solana is in a favorable competitive position. Finally, we’ll explore key metrics indicating that Solana has either surpassed or is close to surpassing Ethereum—data points we at Multicoin pay close attention to.

Before I begin, I must clarify two points. First, today’s opinions are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of Multicoin. Second, this presentation does not constitute investment advice or an offer of investment advisory services by Multicoin.

Ethereum’s Journey Let’s dive into Ethereum’s history. It’s been around for nine years, launching in July 2015—a key fact that we’ll emphasize today. Ethereum has had ample time to address its challenges and define its path, which I’ll discuss in detail later.

What has happened in these nine years? I believe there are three significant developments:

  1. The Rise of DeFi: While DeFi had some traction before 2020, it truly exploded during the “DeFi Summer” of 2020, five years after Ethereum’s launch.
  2. Adoption of a Roll-up-Centric Scalability Roadmap: In October 2020, Ethereum decided to adopt a roll-up-centric scalability roadmap. However, this roadmap isn’t particularly friendly to DeFi, leading to issues like cross-chain bridges and network fragmentation.
  3. Transition from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS): The Ethereum community had planned to transition to PoS even before the mainnet launch in 2015, but it took seven years to actualize, highlighting Ethereum’s slow pace and lack of clear direction.

Ethereum’s Scalability Roadmap Frankly, Ethereum’s scalability roadmap has changed multiple times, initially featuring concepts like Plasma and state channels. Eventually, in 2020, Ethereum settled on a roll-up-centric roadmap.

However, even this is now under scrutiny, with recent public discussions about expanding L1 or introducing multiple block proposers—ideas more akin to strategies seen in projects like Solana, now re-entering Ethereum’s discourse.

We don’t know what Ethereum will decide, which could take months to clarify. But it’s important to note that the roadmap from four years ago is now, at least partially, questioned or potentially completely overturned. Ethereum has been around for nine years, yet it seems to be back at square one. What gives?

Solana’s Prospects Before discussing Solana, one more point on Ethereum: it’s no longer the center of value capture. The roll-up-centric roadmap explicitly shifts transaction fees and MEV from L1 to L2, L3, or even L4. While this roadmap successfully pushed transactions to L2, it also moved most value creation away from Ethereum itself.

People will tell you Ethereum can still be used for data availability, which is true. However, the value of DA is almost zero. There’s sufficient DA both on Ethereum and elsewhere. Ultimately, claims that “ETH is money” are circular and unverifiable—simply a belief imposed without logical basis.

The real litmus test for whether something is money is simple: ask how coffee is priced at your local café. If it’s priced in ETH, then ETH is money. If it’s priced in dollars, then dollars are money. That’s the standard for determining money, not anything else.

As we look forward to Ethereum’s decision-making and potential roadmap revisions, the community faces a critical juncture. The unclear positioning and slow decision-making process pose substantial risks to Ethereum’s dominance in the blockchain space.

Thank you for your time, and I look forward to exploring these themes further in the questions and discussion to follow.

Relevant news

bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) USD 116,559.00
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) USD 2,955.91
tether
Tether (USDT) USD 1.00
xrp
XRP (XRP) USD 2.56
bnb
BNB (BNB) USD 687.98
solana
Solana (SOL) USD 164.25
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) USD 0.999901
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) USD 0.197779
tron
TRON (TRX) USD 0.294522
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) USD 2,955.18
cardano
Cardano (ADA) USD 0.68405
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) USD 116,493.00
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) USD 44.52
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) USD 3,570.71
sui
Sui (SUI) USD 3.48
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) USD 15.33
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) USD 519.16
stellar
Stellar (XLM) USD 0.302972
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) USD 20.83
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) USD 9.02
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) USD 0.195086
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) USD 3,167.54
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) USD 0.000013
weth
WETH (WETH) USD 2,955.79
usds
USDS (USDS) USD 0.999891
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) USD 2.97
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) USD 95.17
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) USD 46.73
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) USD 1.00
monero
Monero (XMR) USD 327.19
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) USD 116,592.00
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) USD 3.92
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) USD 4.58
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) USD 0.000013
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) USD 1.00
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) USD 8.37
aave
Aave (AAVE) USD 304.99
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) USD 0.513678
dai
Dai (DAI) USD 0.999985
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) USD 378.47
aptos
Aptos (APT) USD 4.91
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) USD 2.54
ethena-staked-usde
Ethena Staked USDe (SUSDE) USD 1.18
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) USD 0.097684
okb
OKB (OKB) USD 49.32
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) USD 5.46
jito-staked-sol
Jito Staked SOL (JITOSOL) USD 199.56
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) USD 0.9005
blackrock-usd-institutional-digital-liquidity-fund
BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) USD 1.00
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) USD 18.47
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) USD 1.06
kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) USD 0.086303
usd1-wlfi
USD1 (USD1) USD 1.00
mantle
Mantle (MNT) USD 0.635519
cosmos
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) USD 4.64
vechain
VeChain (VET) USD 0.0245
ethena
Ethena (ENA) USD 0.32664
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) USD 0.415452
official-trump
Official Trump (TRUMP) USD 10.03
polygon-ecosystem-token
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) USD 0.222261
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) USD 16.22
render-token
Render (RENDER) USD 3.74
fetch-ai
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) USD 0.742417
fasttoken
Fasttoken (FTN) USD 4.46
algorand
Algorand (ALGO) USD 0.22065
worldcoin-wld
Worldcoin (WLD) USD 1.09
bonk
Bonk (BONK) USD 0.000024
sei-network
Sei (SEI) USD 0.322846
binance-peg-weth
Binance-Peg WETH (WETH) USD 2,956.20
sky
Sky (SKY) USD 0.08396
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) USD 2.61
lombard-staked-btc
Lombard Staked BTC (LBTC) USD 116,377.00
quant-network
Quant (QNT) USD 115.80
jupiter-perpetuals-liquidity-provider-token
Jupiter Perpetuals Liquidity Provider Token (JLP) USD 4.74
binance-staked-sol
Binance Staked SOL (BNSOL) USD 174.41
spx6900
SPX6900 (SPX) USD 1.62
jupiter-exchange-solana
Jupiter (JUP) USD 0.491922
usdtb
USDtb (USDTB) USD 0.999762
kucoin-shares
KuCoin (KCS) USD 11.37
first-digital-usd
First Digital USD (FDUSD) USD 0.996582
kelp-dao-restaked-eth
Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (RSETH) USD 3,099.26
rocket-pool-eth
Rocket Pool ETH (RETH) USD 3,368.33
usdt0
USDT0 (USDT0) USD 0.999487
pudgy-penguins
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) USD 0.021316
celestia
Celestia (TIA) USD 1.89
fartcoin
Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) USD 1.32
nexo
NEXO (NEXO) USD 1.27
injective-protocol
Injective (INJ) USD 12.46
xdce-crowd-sale
XDC Network (XDC) USD 0.073308
optimism
Optimism (OP) USD 0.676803
virtual-protocol
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) USD 1.79
flare-networks
Flare (FLR) USD 0.016771
blockstack
Stacks (STX) USD 0.747124
mantle-staked-ether
Mantle Staked Ether (METH) USD 3,158.55
stakewise-v3-oseth
StakeWise Staked ETH (OSETH) USD 3,105.52
sonic-3
Sonic (S) USD 0.344884
solv-btc
Solv Protocol BTC (SOLVBTC) USD 116,373.00
polygon-bridged-usdt-polygon
Polygon Bridged USDT (Polygon) (USDT) USD 1.00
dogwifcoin
dogwifhat (WIF) USD 1.04
story-2
Story (IP) USD 3.50